Recently, CRIC announced the latest sales data of the top 100 real estate companies. Data show that in February 2020, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies fell by 43.8% month-on-month. The double-digit decline undoubtedly hit a new low in recent years, causing sighs of relief.
Looking back at last year’s judgments about this year’s real estate industry, most expect that the real estate market in 2020 will benefit from the moderate relaxation of controls. However, due to the sudden outbreak of the new coronavirus pneumonia, sales offices in more than 60 cities are prohibited from opening or even closed. Real estate companies can only urgently implement "delay measures" such as online sales and check-out without reason, but they still cannot escape the market. Short term icing. Under this situation, various cities have introduced policy "support" one after another, among which "Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen" are the most typical.
Beijing: Since February, a total of 10 residential land has been sold in Beijing, with a total investment of nearly 44 billion yuan. The delisted companies are also state-owned enterprises such as China Resources and China Communications Construction Co., Ltd., or Beijing Capital, First Development, and Housing and Urban-Rural Development Co., Ltd. Mainly state-owned enterprises in Beijing. The sales price of second-hand housing in Beijing rose for the first time in nearly eight months, with an increase of 0.4%.
Shanghai: On February 20, the West Bank Financial Harbor land parcel in the Xuhui Riverside area of Shanghai was acquired by Hongkong Land for 31.02 billion yuan. In addition, Shanghai has also issued regulations requiring land payments to be deferred or paid in installments. The purpose is also to reduce the pressure on real estate companies to acquire land and further activate the real estate market.
Shenzhen: On February 12, the Shenzhen Provident Fund Management Center announced four major measures: First, it is clear that it can apply to extend the period of public loans; second, it relaxes the application and deposit conditions for public loans; third, it is overdue Loan repayment does not affect personal credit; fifth, the validity period of the house purchase withdrawal note is extended.
Guangzhou: On March 3, Guangzhou introduced new measures to “promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market”, stipulating that commercial service projects no longer limit sales targets, and second-hand commercial services no longer limit transfer targets. , and the minimum division unit for new projects has been cancelled. This means that purchase restrictions on Guangzhou’s commercial and service projects have been fully “relaxed.”
2020 is destined to be an uneventful year for the construction and ceramics industry, which is closely related to the real estate industry. Huanai Home Jinan Marco Polo PorcelainZhao Xuelin, general manager of bricks, mentioned in an interview with the author last year: "The reason for the downturn in the ceramic tile end market is not that complicated. It just follows the decline of real estate. The reason why so many decoration companies closed down and ran away in 2018 is the same. Not in the real estate industry, they can’t get orders.”
So we often say that when the real estate industry sneezes, many industries (especially the building materials and home furnishing industry) will become "sick". Affected by the epidemic, the situation in 2020 will probably only become more severe. As for how serious the situation will be, no one can accurately predict it now. According to data from China Land Bank, only 32 first-hand residential units were sold in Guangzhou in the sixth week of 2020! Faced with this situation, I am afraid that even if Fang Sijin comes, I will be helpless. (Fang Sijin: The real estate agency manager played by Sun Li in the hit drama "An Jia" claims that there is no property in her hands that cannot be sold.)
▲List of real estate control policies in various regions (Source: Dawei looks at the property market)
This year has just begun, and we have seen news of the collapse of many real estate companies. What followed was the most intensive "policy blowout" in the national real estate market in history. In March, this "real estate rescue drama" gradually reached its climax. According to incomplete statistics, from February to now, more than 60 cities across the country have introduced policies related to the real estate industry to alleviate the impact of the epidemic on the industry, with the frequency of regulation being as high as 75 times. Seeing such a large-scale "rescue operation", the author has to say with emotion: See you soon. Think about the report on Suzhou terminal market research in August last year. When the author mentioned that Suzhou implemented three property market control policies within three months of 2019, he also called it a "weird person". It turned out to be "rare and weird".
According to news, Zhumadian was interviewed by the provincial party committee and the provincial government seven days after it introduced the deregulation policy, and the link to the original text of the policy has also expired. There was a lot of discussion for a while, whether the time has not come for the real estate "rescue"? However, it is understood that this "interview" episode did not slow down the pace of loosening the property market, and some places still introduced new home purchase policies the next day.
If Zhumadian is just a small episode, thenHainan Province just threw a handful of salt into the boiling oil pan.
On the evening of March 7, the General Office of the Hainan Provincial Party Committee and the General Office of the Provincial Government issued the "Notice on Establishing an Urban Subject Responsibility System for the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market." The pre-sale system for commercial housing, which has been implemented for 26 years, will completely disappear in Hainan Province! From the date of issuance of the document, only existing houses will be sold in the province. At the same time, the notice clarified that sales of affordable commercial housing and market-oriented commercial housing to families with household registration and permanent residence in the province (including couples and minor children) who already own two or more houses will be stopped. This is currently the first and only province to upgrade regulation in reverse, and its hard-core implementation has made people shout out that it has the courage to cut off the strength of a strong man. The real estate "rescue drama" is getting more and more intense. Hainan Province has single-handedly given the country a sobering dose - not because the time has not come, but to advise you to stay awake.
In fact, whether it is the reduction of provident fund loan down payments, home purchase subsidies, or talent policies, the current "rescue" measures are relatively mild. Unless the down payment for a second home is reduced from 70% to 30%, creating investment or speculation opportunities for buyers with purchasing power, that would be contrary to the main tone of "housing is for living, not for speculation". The real estate industry has indeed been affected by the epidemic. It is understandable that local governments should make some appropriate adjustments without violating their original intentions. After all, only by mobilizing funds from urgently needed buyers to activate the market can the market turn around again.
Looking back at our building ceramics industry, faced with many problems such as rising raw material prices, strict environmental protection policies, difficult terminal markets, and anti-dumping exports, we can only think about how to save ourselves. After 2018 and 2019, we are still moving forward tenaciously in the cracks, right?
